Manifold Forecasting

★★★⯨★ 69.4 PMR Score

Unmatched breadth — but it's play-money.

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Founded2021

Founder(s)Austin Chen, James Grugett & Stephen Grugett

HeadquartersAustin, TX

CategoryForecasting

StatusLive

Manifold, founded in December 2021 by Austin Chen and brothers James and Stephen Grugett, lets anyone create and trade markets using a play-money currency called Mana. The result is an enormous, fast-moving library of community markets on everything from elections and AI timelines to deeply personal questions.

Because it is play-money (a brief real-money "sweepcash" experiment was retired in 2025), it carries no financial risk and is effectively free — ideal for honing forecasting skill and community engagement. The flip side is that its "liquidity" doesn't translate to real payouts.

Markets offered

PoliticsTech & AISportsCultureSciencePersonalUser-created

Pros & cons

Pros

Enormous library of user-created markets
Effectively free to participate
A highly transparent, engaged community

Cons

Play-money only — no real-money payouts
Liquidity is thin in the real-money sense

Best for Forecasters and hobbyists who want breadth without financial risk.

Score breakdown

Liquidity

Regulation

Market Breadth

Cost

Transparency

⚠ Important — please read

Prediction markets involve real financial risk and you can lose your entire stake. Availability and legality vary by jurisdiction and are changing rapidly. This review is independent and informational only — it is not financial, investment, or legal advice or an endorsement to trade. Verify this platform's current legal status where you live before depositing funds. Figures reflect public reporting and may be out of date.